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Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

E.J. Dionne Says Life Is Tough on the Moderate Left

I know and respect E.J. Dionne, but I’m afraid I have to get out a heaping dump truck full of ridicule for his whining about the “agony of the moderate left.” Yeah, times can be difficult for these politicians. After all, when their half measures fail to produce results for those who they claim to represent, they get voted out of office and then are stuck earning multi-million dollar salaries in the private sector or doing six-figure speaking gigs for Wall Street banks.

This compares to life for the more actual left who actually have a far better track record in doing things like recognizing housing bubbles that will sink the economy and knowing that cheap stimulus is inadequate to fuel recovery from a severe recession. There are few people with big bucks who are anxious to have such views promulgated, which means you don’t often hear them in places like The Washington Post.

Anyhow, the only reasonable response to E.J. Dionne is “life is tough.”

I know and respect E.J. Dionne, but I’m afraid I have to get out a heaping dump truck full of ridicule for his whining about the “agony of the moderate left.” Yeah, times can be difficult for these politicians. After all, when their half measures fail to produce results for those who they claim to represent, they get voted out of office and then are stuck earning multi-million dollar salaries in the private sector or doing six-figure speaking gigs for Wall Street banks.

This compares to life for the more actual left who actually have a far better track record in doing things like recognizing housing bubbles that will sink the economy and knowing that cheap stimulus is inadequate to fuel recovery from a severe recession. There are few people with big bucks who are anxious to have such views promulgated, which means you don’t often hear them in places like The Washington Post.

Anyhow, the only reasonable response to E.J. Dionne is “life is tough.”

The Washington Post’s editorial page is notorious for refusing to own up to its mistakes. In true Trumpian spirit, the paper still has not corrected an editorial touting the success of NAFTA which absurdly claimed Mexico’s GDP had more than quadrupled between 1987 and 2007. The correct number was 84.2 percent.

Anyhow, Fred Hiatt, the editorial page editor, is now complaining again about the horrible harm that will be caused by future deficits. In any plausible scenario, the potential harm from a too large deficit is dwarfed by the trillions of dollars of lost output, and the millions of people needlessly unemployed, as a result of the Post and its allies pushing for austerity following the Great Recession.

The Post’s editorial staff both lack any knowledge of economics and lack integrity.

The Washington Post’s editorial page is notorious for refusing to own up to its mistakes. In true Trumpian spirit, the paper still has not corrected an editorial touting the success of NAFTA which absurdly claimed Mexico’s GDP had more than quadrupled between 1987 and 2007. The correct number was 84.2 percent.

Anyhow, Fred Hiatt, the editorial page editor, is now complaining again about the horrible harm that will be caused by future deficits. In any plausible scenario, the potential harm from a too large deficit is dwarfed by the trillions of dollars of lost output, and the millions of people needlessly unemployed, as a result of the Post and its allies pushing for austerity following the Great Recession.

The Post’s editorial staff both lack any knowledge of economics and lack integrity.

That one is apparently not on the agenda, at least according to Amanda Taub’s NYT “The Interpreter” piece. The piece notes the declining support for center right and center left parties in most western democracies. While it notes that people feel unrepresented by these parties, it never states the obvious, these parties have consistently supported monetary, fiscal, trade, and intellectual property policies that redistribute an ever-larger share of income to people like Bill Gates and Robert Rubin.

It should not be surprising that most of the public is not enthralled with this outcome and the parties that promote it. And yes, there are alternatives, as I point out in my (free) book, Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer.

That one is apparently not on the agenda, at least according to Amanda Taub’s NYT “The Interpreter” piece. The piece notes the declining support for center right and center left parties in most western democracies. While it notes that people feel unrepresented by these parties, it never states the obvious, these parties have consistently supported monetary, fiscal, trade, and intellectual property policies that redistribute an ever-larger share of income to people like Bill Gates and Robert Rubin.

It should not be surprising that most of the public is not enthralled with this outcome and the parties that promote it. And yes, there are alternatives, as I point out in my (free) book, Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer.

One of the major changes in the Republican tax plan that became law at the end of last year was a limit of $10,000 on the deduction for state and local income taxes. This was explicitly designed as an attack on liberal states like California and New York, which provide relatively high quality services for their residents, and therefore have higher taxes. Many Republicans openly boasted that these states would face pressure to reduce their taxes, and therefore also cut funding in areas like education and health care, if state and local taxes were not deductible for all of their residents. Republicans may exaggerate the effect of imposing a higher tax burden on these states. (For those keeping score, there was already a net outflow of money from states that tend to vote Democratic to those that vote Republican.) However, there is no doubt that it is harder for state and local government to raise revenue in a context where state and local taxes are not fully deductible than in a context where they are. In other words, Republicans are absolutely right in believing that they are hurting the finances of liberal states. There have been various plans put forward to counter the Republican tax plan, but New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, is taking the lead with his proposal for an employer-side payroll tax that will substitute for a portion of the state income tax. This is a way to preserve the deductibility of a substantial portion of the tax revenue the state raises. Cuomo proposes to have a 5 percent payroll tax on wage incomes in excess of $40,000. This tax would be phased in over a three-year period. It would also be voluntary so that companies did not want to go this route would not be required. Workers at companies that did go the payroll tax route would be subject to a different tax schedule that took account of the payroll tax paid by their employer.
One of the major changes in the Republican tax plan that became law at the end of last year was a limit of $10,000 on the deduction for state and local income taxes. This was explicitly designed as an attack on liberal states like California and New York, which provide relatively high quality services for their residents, and therefore have higher taxes. Many Republicans openly boasted that these states would face pressure to reduce their taxes, and therefore also cut funding in areas like education and health care, if state and local taxes were not deductible for all of their residents. Republicans may exaggerate the effect of imposing a higher tax burden on these states. (For those keeping score, there was already a net outflow of money from states that tend to vote Democratic to those that vote Republican.) However, there is no doubt that it is harder for state and local government to raise revenue in a context where state and local taxes are not fully deductible than in a context where they are. In other words, Republicans are absolutely right in believing that they are hurting the finances of liberal states. There have been various plans put forward to counter the Republican tax plan, but New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, is taking the lead with his proposal for an employer-side payroll tax that will substitute for a portion of the state income tax. This is a way to preserve the deductibility of a substantial portion of the tax revenue the state raises. Cuomo proposes to have a 5 percent payroll tax on wage incomes in excess of $40,000. This tax would be phased in over a three-year period. It would also be voluntary so that companies did not want to go this route would not be required. Workers at companies that did go the payroll tax route would be subject to a different tax schedule that took account of the payroll tax paid by their employer.

It’s always important to remember that the problem of high drug prices is almost entirely a government-created problem in the form of patent monopolies. In the absence of these monopolies, almost all drugs would be cheap. In many cases, the free market price is less than 1.0 percent of the patent monopoly price.

It would have been helpful to note this fact in this NYT piece on a Trump Administration plan to lower drug prices to patients. Several Democratic members of Congress, including Senators Sanders, Warren, and Gillibrand, have proposed legislation that would have the government pay for the cost of researching and testing new drugs. By allowing new drugs to sell at generic prices, public funding would not only reduce costs but would also eliminate the enormous incentive for lying about the safety and effectiveness of drugs that exist under the current system.

It’s always important to remember that the problem of high drug prices is almost entirely a government-created problem in the form of patent monopolies. In the absence of these monopolies, almost all drugs would be cheap. In many cases, the free market price is less than 1.0 percent of the patent monopoly price.

It would have been helpful to note this fact in this NYT piece on a Trump Administration plan to lower drug prices to patients. Several Democratic members of Congress, including Senators Sanders, Warren, and Gillibrand, have proposed legislation that would have the government pay for the cost of researching and testing new drugs. By allowing new drugs to sell at generic prices, public funding would not only reduce costs but would also eliminate the enormous incentive for lying about the safety and effectiveness of drugs that exist under the current system.

The article discusses the agenda of Andrew Yang, a New York-based businessperson, whose political agenda is centered on dealing with mass job displacement due to robots and artificial intelligence. Such mass displacement implies rapid productivity growth, presumably along the lines of the 3.0 percent growth the country saw in the long Golden Age from 1947 to 1973 and again from 1995 to 2005.

This sort of rapid productivity growth would make it possible to reach the 3.0 percent growth rate that Republicans projected when they passed their tax cuts. (GDP growth is the sum of productivity growth and employment growth.) In the years since 2005, productivity growth has been close to 1.0 percent. The Congressional Budget Office and most other forecasters have projected that slow rates of productivity growth would continue. However, the robots taking our jobs crew strongly disagree.

Somehow, most reporting has failed to recognize the relationship between job-killing robots and GDP growth. If we do see the more rapid productivity growth envisioned by those concerned about job-killing robots, then deficits will certainly not be a problem. The country will be seeing enormous growth in its productive capacities and will need lots of spending to keep workers employed and fully utilize its capacity.

The article discusses the agenda of Andrew Yang, a New York-based businessperson, whose political agenda is centered on dealing with mass job displacement due to robots and artificial intelligence. Such mass displacement implies rapid productivity growth, presumably along the lines of the 3.0 percent growth the country saw in the long Golden Age from 1947 to 1973 and again from 1995 to 2005.

This sort of rapid productivity growth would make it possible to reach the 3.0 percent growth rate that Republicans projected when they passed their tax cuts. (GDP growth is the sum of productivity growth and employment growth.) In the years since 2005, productivity growth has been close to 1.0 percent. The Congressional Budget Office and most other forecasters have projected that slow rates of productivity growth would continue. However, the robots taking our jobs crew strongly disagree.

Somehow, most reporting has failed to recognize the relationship between job-killing robots and GDP growth. If we do see the more rapid productivity growth envisioned by those concerned about job-killing robots, then deficits will certainly not be a problem. The country will be seeing enormous growth in its productive capacities and will need lots of spending to keep workers employed and fully utilize its capacity.

Here are a few small changes from the article in today’s Post (“Massive infusion of spending ends era of restraint for federal agencies, Pentagon) telling readers how the new budget deal would increase the budget deficit.

“The deal signed into law by President Trump will pump more than $500 billion in additional money (1.2 percent of GDP) into domestic agencies and the Pentagon over two years, the biggest increase in spending in almost a decade. It ends months of budget squabbles and provides greater certainty for the government officials responsible for the military, disaster relief and domestic agencies.”

“While Congress approved a 10 percent increase in spending for the Pentagon and domestic agencies — lifting the military budget to $700 billion this year (3.5 percent of GDP) and the domestic budget to $591 billion (3.0 percent of GDP) — appropriators on 12 different committees have to fill in many of the details.”

“The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that the United States will have a $1 trillion budget deficit (5.0 percent of GDP) by next year — extremely high by historical standards — and that it will probably last for years.”

“Some of the largest debates on Capitol Hill in the coming weeks — a complete budget is due by March 23 — are probably going to be over border security funding, $86 billion in disaster funding and $140 billion in emergency war funding.” (The piece does not indicate whether these would be single year or multi-year appropriations, so it is not clear how large they are relative to the budget or the economy.)

Here are a few small changes from the article in today’s Post (“Massive infusion of spending ends era of restraint for federal agencies, Pentagon) telling readers how the new budget deal would increase the budget deficit.

“The deal signed into law by President Trump will pump more than $500 billion in additional money (1.2 percent of GDP) into domestic agencies and the Pentagon over two years, the biggest increase in spending in almost a decade. It ends months of budget squabbles and provides greater certainty for the government officials responsible for the military, disaster relief and domestic agencies.”

“While Congress approved a 10 percent increase in spending for the Pentagon and domestic agencies — lifting the military budget to $700 billion this year (3.5 percent of GDP) and the domestic budget to $591 billion (3.0 percent of GDP) — appropriators on 12 different committees have to fill in many of the details.”

“The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that the United States will have a $1 trillion budget deficit (5.0 percent of GDP) by next year — extremely high by historical standards — and that it will probably last for years.”

“Some of the largest debates on Capitol Hill in the coming weeks — a complete budget is due by March 23 — are probably going to be over border security funding, $86 billion in disaster funding and $140 billion in emergency war funding.” (The piece does not indicate whether these would be single year or multi-year appropriations, so it is not clear how large they are relative to the budget or the economy.)

It is more than a bit painful to see the media all turn to the Peter Peterson-financed Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) as the experts on budget deficits right now. We can argue over whether the Republicans are pushing too far with their deficits when the economy is near full employment, but one thing that is not arguable is that we had needlessly austere federal budgets for the last decade.

While the austerity was largely attributable to the Republicans in Congress who had as their guiding principle opposing anything President Obama might do to boost growth and create jobs, the CRFB and other Peterson funded outfits provided them with intellectual credibility in pushing this position. They could pretend they were being responsible stewards of the Treasury as they were demanding cuts in a wide range of federal programs and nixing any new ones.

In reality, rather than helping our children as the CFRB and Republican deficit hawks claimed, they were keeping their parents out of work and permanently lowering the economy’s productive capacity. Their policies are easily costing us $1 trillion a year in lost output (5.0 percent of GDP).

It is unfortunate that a long record of being disastrously wrong on budget policy is apparently a credential for getting taken seriously by major media outlets in debates over the federal budget.

It is more than a bit painful to see the media all turn to the Peter Peterson-financed Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) as the experts on budget deficits right now. We can argue over whether the Republicans are pushing too far with their deficits when the economy is near full employment, but one thing that is not arguable is that we had needlessly austere federal budgets for the last decade.

While the austerity was largely attributable to the Republicans in Congress who had as their guiding principle opposing anything President Obama might do to boost growth and create jobs, the CRFB and other Peterson funded outfits provided them with intellectual credibility in pushing this position. They could pretend they were being responsible stewards of the Treasury as they were demanding cuts in a wide range of federal programs and nixing any new ones.

In reality, rather than helping our children as the CFRB and Republican deficit hawks claimed, they were keeping their parents out of work and permanently lowering the economy’s productive capacity. Their policies are easily costing us $1 trillion a year in lost output (5.0 percent of GDP).

It is unfortunate that a long record of being disastrously wrong on budget policy is apparently a credential for getting taken seriously by major media outlets in debates over the federal budget.

The NYT should have its presses washed out with soap. In an article about plans to impose work requirements for Medicaid it told readers:

“The ballooning deficits created by the budget deal that President Trump signed into law Friday and the recent tax bill are likely to add urgency to the party’s attempts to wring savings from entitlement programs.”

This needs a big “what the f**k are you talking about?” The Republicans do everything they can to increase the deficit with tax cuts and additional spending for the military and now there is “urgency … to wring savings from entitlement programs.”

Sorry, not on this planet. The Republicans have made it as clear as they possibly can they don’t give a damn about deficits. When a Republican says anything about deficits at this point, the only appropriate response is derisive laughter. They have zero right to be taken seriously and the NYT misleads its readers by implying otherwise.

The NYT should have its presses washed out with soap. In an article about plans to impose work requirements for Medicaid it told readers:

“The ballooning deficits created by the budget deal that President Trump signed into law Friday and the recent tax bill are likely to add urgency to the party’s attempts to wring savings from entitlement programs.”

This needs a big “what the f**k are you talking about?” The Republicans do everything they can to increase the deficit with tax cuts and additional spending for the military and now there is “urgency … to wring savings from entitlement programs.”

Sorry, not on this planet. The Republicans have made it as clear as they possibly can they don’t give a damn about deficits. When a Republican says anything about deficits at this point, the only appropriate response is derisive laughter. They have zero right to be taken seriously and the NYT misleads its readers by implying otherwise.

John Quiggin had a good piece in the NYT, pointing out how the sky-high valuations of Bitcoin undermine the efficient market hypothesis that plays a central role in much economic theory. In the strong form, we can count on markets to direct capital to its best possible uses. This means that government interventions of various types will lead to a less efficient allocation of capital and therefore slower economic growth. Quiggin points out that this view is hard to reconcile with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the last decade. Massive amounts of capital were clearly directed towards poor uses in the form of companies that would never make a profit in the 1990s and houses that never should have been built in the last decade. But Bitcoin takes this a step further. Bitcoin has no use. It makes no sense as currency and it is almost impossible to envision a scenario in which it would in the future. It has no aesthetic value, like a great painting or even a colorful stock certificate. It is literally nothing and worth nothing. Nonetheless, at its peak, the capitalization of Bitcoin was more than $300 billion. This suggests some heavy-duty inefficiency in the market. Quiggin is on the money in his analysis of Bitcoin and its meaning for the efficient market hypothesis, but it is worth taking this line of thinking in a slightly different direction. The purpose of the financial sector is to allocate capital. In principle, we would want as small a financial sector as possible, just like we would want a small trucking sector.
John Quiggin had a good piece in the NYT, pointing out how the sky-high valuations of Bitcoin undermine the efficient market hypothesis that plays a central role in much economic theory. In the strong form, we can count on markets to direct capital to its best possible uses. This means that government interventions of various types will lead to a less efficient allocation of capital and therefore slower economic growth. Quiggin points out that this view is hard to reconcile with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the last decade. Massive amounts of capital were clearly directed towards poor uses in the form of companies that would never make a profit in the 1990s and houses that never should have been built in the last decade. But Bitcoin takes this a step further. Bitcoin has no use. It makes no sense as currency and it is almost impossible to envision a scenario in which it would in the future. It has no aesthetic value, like a great painting or even a colorful stock certificate. It is literally nothing and worth nothing. Nonetheless, at its peak, the capitalization of Bitcoin was more than $300 billion. This suggests some heavy-duty inefficiency in the market. Quiggin is on the money in his analysis of Bitcoin and its meaning for the efficient market hypothesis, but it is worth taking this line of thinking in a slightly different direction. The purpose of the financial sector is to allocate capital. In principle, we would want as small a financial sector as possible, just like we would want a small trucking sector.

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