Can We Stop Using the 60,000 Death Projection Number?

April 23, 2020

I’m not trying to be morbid, but it is obviously wrong. As of this moment, we have 47,700 reported coronavirus deaths. We have been seeing this number increase at a rate of more than 2,000 per day.  Furthermore, the number of people who are now dying typically got the disease two or three weeks ago, so unless we somehow develop a miraculous cure very quickly, a substantial percentage of the people who contracted the disease in prior weeks are going to die.

For this reason, it would be good if articles, like this update in the NYT, stopped referring to “the 60,000 projected virus-related deaths in the U.S.” This is clearly not a realistic number and the media should stop using it.


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