February 10, 2012
A NYT Economix blognote told readers that confidence about the economy is up and that this should be reinforcing leading to a stronger economy, as firms invest more and consumers spend more. The chart accompanying the note shows the opposite.
The recent levels of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index are getting back or slightly exceeding the peaks hit at the end of 2010, just before the economy nearly ground to a halt, growing just 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011. After 6 months of very slow growth, the confidence measure cratered. It has been rising again following the stronger growth of the last two quarters.
In short, this confidence measure looks like a very good lagging indicator, one that tells us where the economy was.
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