May 29, 2010
This could have reasonably been the headline of news articles on the decision of many moderate Democrats to demand a smaller package of unemployment benefits and assistance to state and local governments. Instead, neither article noted at all the negative impact that the cuts would be expected to have on growth. The NYT piece even invented an alternative history, telling readers that the current debt and deficit levels come from a “lavish spending spree engaged in by both parties over the past decade,” as opposed to being the result of an economic collapse caused by the bursting of the housing bubble.
The plans by the deficit hawks seem likely to trim $30 billion in unemployment benefits and aid to the states from the bill. Using the methodology in the Romer-Bernstein paper put out by the Obama administration to promote its stimulus package, the cuts will reduce GDP by approximately $50 billion. This will correspond to a job loss of more than 300,000 people. It is irresponsible to report on plans to reduce deficits without noting their likely impact on the economy.
The Post piece included the comment that Congressional Democrats looking to cut benefits are “saying 99 weeks of unemployment benefits may no longer be justified after four consecutive months of job growth.” It would have been worth reminding readers that the rate of job growth over the last four months has only slightly outpaced the growth of the labor force. Projections from both the Congressional Budget Officie and the White House show that it will be more than 5 years before the unemployment rate returns to a more normal level.
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