UPDATE April 15, 7:45 P.M. EDT: With 99.36 percent of votes counted, Daniel Noboa has received 55.6 percent of valid votes, Luísa González has received 44.4%, with voter turnout reaching nearly 80 percent.  Although González hasn’t yet conceded, many RC politicians – mayors of major cities, provincial prefects and legislators – have recognized Noboa’s victory.

The electoral observation missions (EOMs) of both the European Union and the Organization of American States have released preliminary reports (the EU here, the OAS here).  Both reports note that the electoral process was transparent and peaceful, and state that there was no evidence of fraud. However, both missions raise a number of concerns regarding various actions and developments during the election campaign that contributed to an unlevel playing field.

Both the EU and OAS reports discussed Noboa’s failure to take a leave of absence from the presidency during the campaign, as is “mandatory for incumbents.”  Noboa the president deployed state resources that appeared to support the campaign of Noboa the candidate. For instance, the EU remarked that “three days into the [runoff] campaign period, a USD 500 bonus payment was granted to all members of the armed forces and the police through two presidential decrees.” According to the EU, actions like these “tilted the playing field” in Noboa’s favor. Similarly, both EOMs echoed concerns from political and civil society organizations regarding Noboa’s Noboa’s de facto removal of the Vice President – who should have replaced Noboa as acting president during the campaign – without respecting the constitutional process for removing an elected official.

Other measures by Noboa that raised red flags for the EOMs included his April 12 emergency decree (no. 599) that established a state of exception (with curfews and other restrictions) in a set of coastal provinces that happened to be areas in which González had stronger support. Along with Noboa’s, ultimately unrealized request for the suspension of fines for those who didn’t vote (voting is compulsory in Ecuadorian elections), targeting some of the same provinces, this measure created the impression that Noboa was attempting to dampen voter turnout in potentially pro-Luisa areas of the country.

Both observation missions also raised concerns about strong media bias and the dissemination of disinformation, particularly via the internet. The EU noted that state-owned outlets “strongly favor[ed] Daniel Noboa” during the campaign and that “extensive government-sponsored advertising contributed to an uneven playing field in the media.”  In private press and digital media, “Noboa dominated both in space and positive tone, while coverage of González was limited and often negative,” according to the EU report. The OAS focused on the pervasiveness of “fake news” on the internet and cited a study by Lupa Media that determined that 74 percent of the viral social media content surveyed by the organization was “false”; one in five pieces of content were AI generated. Both EOMs lamented the CNE’s ineffectiveness in addressing these issues.

UPDATE  22:15 P.M. EDT: The CEPR team captured these images of people on the streets of Quito celebrating the CNE’s declaration of an “irreversible trend” showing a victory for Noboa. Noboa has said, “This victory has been historic, a victory of more than 10 points, of more than a million votes, there is no doubt who the winner is.”

UPDATE 21:18 P.M. EDT: You can watch González’s post-election speech to the crowd outside the RC headquarters here.

UPDATE 21:08 P.M. EDT: RC candidate Luisa González is not recognizing the official results presented by the CNE and is saying they will request a recount, saying, “I refuse to believe there is a people that believes in lies rather than truth.” Crowds outside the RC headquarters are claiming there has been fraud, and are calling for a recount. Gonzalez says Ecuador is experiencing a “grotesque fraud.” “How can it be credible that not even one vote was added,” she asks, as the official results would seem to indicate that González did not gain any vote percentage from supporters of other candidates in the first round, including from third-place candidate Leonidas Iza, who endorsed González in the runoff.

UPDATE 20:24 P.M. EDT: While the official vote count is still ongoing, citing exit polls, Bloomberg has published an article announcing Noboa’s victory, and Citizen Revolution (RC), Luisa González’s party, has posted a tweet declaring her the winner.

With approximately 78% of votes counted, the results are far from final, and the CNE has yet to announce an official winner.

UPDATE 19:54 P.M. EDT: As vote counting continues, the CNE headquarters is under tight military guard, with army trucks and soldiers surrounding the building.

You can follow the CNE vote count on their website. According to the latest updates, with 49.93% of votes counted, Noboa leads with 57.04% while González has 42.96%.

UPDATE 18:48 P.M. EDT: According to Associated Press, Ecuador’s top electoral authority, Diana Atamaint, said that 83.7% of eligible voters had cast their ballots. Meanwhile, law enforcement seized 56 firearms and arrested more than 630 individuals near polling areas, including people wanted for drug trafficking, homicide, and nonpayment of child support.

El Universo reports that, according to the ECU911 Integrated Video Surveillance System, as of 14:00 p.m., National Police and other control agencies had detained 474 people for drinking in public, recorded 301 cases of public disturbance, and intervened in 26 parties.

The provinces with the highest number of reported incidents were Guayas (1,162), Pichincha (962), and Manabí (297), followed by El Oro (263), Azuay (207), and 1,690 incidents across other provinces.

The government security agency reported that 3,160 incidents related to citizen security—including health, traffic and mobility, and risk management—were addressed.

Since 7:00 a.m., when polling stations opened, ECU911 has received a total of 13,192 alerts.

UPDATE 17:59 P.M. EDT: Polls ready to close.

Polls are about to close in Ecuador. What happens to voters in line who have yet to cast their ballots before 5:00? El Universo reports that anyone arriving at a polling place after that time will be unable to vote. But anyone who has shown their ID and has received their ballot and is line after 5:00 will still be able to vote. Citizens in line who have yet to receive their ballot, however, will not.

UPDATE 17:08 P.M. EDT: Various exit poll results are being shared on social media. In the first round of this election, exit poll data released shortly after voting ended proved to be highly misleading, prematurely declaring a first-round victory for Noboa. This time, the CNE has authorized only four firms to conduct and publish exit polls: Cedatos, Centro Invest, Corpmontpubli, and Telcodata. However, only Corpmontpubli and Telcodata have confirmed they will actually conduct exit polls. Their results are expected to be released starting at 5 p.m. local time. As Mauricio Alarcón, director of Fundación Ciudadanía y Desarrollo and the national contact for Transparency International in Ecuador, cautions: “Before sharing supposed results, verify the source.”

UPDATE 16:54 P.M. EDT: The CNE reported shortly after 4:00 EDT that it was beginning the process of cleaning up its database to begin scrutinizing and tabulating results. This was being carried out in the presence of Dr. María Elena Altamirano, the notary for Quito, auditors from political organizations, and journalists.

You can follow the CNE livestream here.

UPDATE 16:30 P.M. EDT: Flooding in parts of Guayas forced the relocation of some voting centers. Since Guayas generally favored González in the first round, this could affect turnout among her supporters.

Teleamazonas reported that more than 34 percent of voters had cast their ballots at the Universidad Católica de Guayaquil as of 4:04 p.m. EDT. This is significantly lower turnout than the 41 percent of total eligible voters who had voted nationwide and abroad by the time of the CNE’s second update at 1:00 p.m. local time.

UPDATE 15:58 P.M. EDT: Al Jazeera English’s Lucia Newman interviewed CEPR’s Pedro Labayen Herrera this afternoon about President Noboa’s state of emergency decree issued the day before the elections, and why there is so much concern about it.

UPDATE 15:47 P.M. EDT: Context: Meeting with Nataly Morillo

In late March, CEPR met with Nataly Morillo, a legislator from Noboa’s ADN party who had just been reelected as one of a group of legislators representing the Pichincha province, which includes the capital city of Quito. Morillo has a background in communications and is a member of the National Assembly’s Permanent Committee on Education, Culture, Science, Technology, Innovation and Ancestral Knowledge.

In our meeting, she discussed the highly polarized context in which the election campaign was unfolding and noted that she had received complaints from ADN campaign volunteers who had reported facing threats and verbal attacks from RC supporters in some neighborhoods of Quito. She also elaborated on Noboa’s claim that significant irregularities had emerged following the first round vote on February 9.

According to Morillo, for 265 final tally sheets in Pichincha (corresponding to 265 ballot boxes), the results posted appeared to bear discrepancies with what was recorded on draft tally sheets (the sheets of paper where rough notes are taken during the vote count). ADN had requested a recount of all 265 ballot boxes, but the CNE had only allowed them to carry out a recount of three ballot boxes. In that recount, ADN gained an additional 100 votes, according to Morillo. Nevertheless, ADN didn’t go as far as to claim that fraud had taken place; they spoke instead of “inconsistencies.”

Morillo told us that she was concerned that if the election results were close, they would be contested by whoever lost, and that this could lead to potential clashes and unrest.

When asked about the major differences between the two candidates, she asserted that a Gónzalez government wouldn’t manage the nation’s finances responsibly; that it would dig into the country’s international reserves for public spending. This is why Ecuador’s country-risk rating had risen considerably ahead of the runoff, she said. Noboa, on the other hand, would focus his efforts on attracting foreign investment to help the country develop, and he would pay off Ecuador’s debt.

Another issue where the candidates diverged was on security policy: unlike González, Noboa understood the importance of international cooperation as an essential means of tackling crime and drug-trafficking: other countries, like the US, have technology and resources that far surpass what Ecuador can realistically deploy. That’s why it was important for a future Noboa government to pursue a reform of the constitution’s article 5, which prohibits foreign military forces from using or establishing bases in Ecuador. Morillo considers that RC’s “ideology” gets in the way of tackling the country’s urgent security issues.

Asked if Noboa would recognize the results if he lost, Morillo said that she doubted he would if the results were very close. Morillo noted that, if the result is contested by either candidate, it will be up to the Court of Electoral Disputes to decide on how to proceed.

UPDATE 15:28 P.M. EDT: In its second report, released at 1:00 p.m., the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that 41 percent of eligible voters had already cast their ballots. The CNE also reported that voting has concluded in 47 overseas electoral zones, while the process is still ongoing in 50 others. In addition, 71 people had been caught by authorities taking pictures of their ballots in violation of recent electoral rules.

The head of the CNE stated that the day has unfolded “in complete calm.”

The Electoral Observation Mission of the OAS is also monitoring the election in Ecuador. A total of 84 observers from 21 countries are overseeing the runoff, and the head of the mission has stated that the process is taking place normally.

UPDATE 15:19 P.M. EDT: We’ve received these photos from Ismael Bernal, an advocate for Afro-Ecuadorian rights, who is voting today in Esmeraldas — a region devastated in March by one of Ecuador’s worst environmental disasters in the last 30 years. A spill of 25,000 barrels of oil contaminated local water sources, affecting half a million people and severely limiting access to clean drinking water.

Esmeraldas is also a region marked by state violence and the presence of powerful drug cartels. It is home to the majority of the country’s Afro-Ecuadorian population — 55.48 percent of its residents identify as Afro-descendant — and is one of Ecuador’s poorest provinces. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Census, half of Esmeraldas’ population survives on less than $3 a day.

Today, voting in Esmeraldas is taking place under heavy security presence. The images show up to three layers of security before reaching the polling stations. Still, voting is proceeding without incident, according to Ismael.

In recent months, Ismael has also been at the forefront of efforts to support the families of four Afro-Ecuadorian children who were detained by military forces in December — children whose bodies were found days later, showing signs of torture and having been burned. The horrific crime epitomizes the scale of state violence unleashed following President Noboa’s January 2024 declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in the name of combating crime.

Through his Instagram account, Ismael has documented a series of images and videos showing arbitrary detentions and acts of torture carried out by Ecuadorian state security forces since the declaration of the “internal armed conflict.” These can be viewed here.

UPDATE 14:13 P.M. EDT: The head of the European Union Election Observation Mission said that voting is proceeding normally. “I hope this smooth start continues throughout the day, and that both the voting process and the vote count conclude in the same orderly manner,” he stated.

Asked about the CNE’s ban on mobile phone use inside voting booths, he noted that the measure is being widely respected and implemented without major issues.

In response to questions about Decree 599—issued yesterday by President Noboa, declaring a state of emergency in seven provinces and in Quito (with all but Quito being areas where Luisa González enjoys strong support)—he said the National Electoral Council (CNE) had assured the mission that the decree would not interfere with electoral oversight or restrict the mobility of election observers.

Regarding President Noboa’s failure to temporarily step down from office while campaigning, in apparent violation of electoral law, he said the context of the runoff election differed from the first round. He added that the issue would be addressed in the mission’s final report, as it was in the report from the first round, which is available online.

Finally, he confirmed that the EU mission’s preliminary report is expected to be released this Tuesday, two days after the election—provided no serious incidents occur and the vote count proceeds without major delays.

🗳️ #DecideEcuador2025 | Gabriel Mato, jefe de la Misión de Observación Electoral de la Unión Europea, analiza el desarrollo de la segunda vuelta de este domingo 13 de abril. Sobre la restricción de usar celulares en las urnas, el comisionado sostiene que esta es una medida que… pic.twitter.com/33Q9fhxrTP

— Radio Pichincha (@radio_pichincha) April 13, 2025

UPDATE 13:37 P.M. EDT: Vice President Verónica Abad, who claims to be the target of political persecution, appeared at her designated polling station today but did not cast her vote. In March, the Electoral Dispute Tribunal suspended her right to hold office over a contested charge of “gender-based political violence” against the foreign minister. As a result, Abad was removed from the vice presidency and stripped of her political rights for two years.

Speaking to the press, Abad said her decision not to vote was both an act of protest against President Noboa and a measure to comply with the court’s ruling. Under Ecuadorian law, Noboa was required to temporarily transfer power to Abad while campaigning for re-election. Instead, he refused and used irregular legal maneuvers to appoint up to two different vice presidents in her place.

UPDATE 13:11 P.M. EDT: In a joint statement, left and progressive political organizations such as Pachakutik, Revolución Ciudadana, RETO, PSE, and Centro Democrático expressed alarm over what they describe as irregular and destabilizing actions by Ecuador’s National Electoral Council (CNE) and the government of President Daniel Noboa ahead of the runoff election. The statement lists several concerns, including:

• Last-minute relocation of 18 polling stations, reportedly in areas where the government performed poorly in the first round
• Government announcements, broadcast on all TV and radio channels, aired four times a day during the “electoral silence” period, promoting supposed government actions—something expressly prohibited by law. The CNE, however, didn’t object
• Barriers preventing international observers from entering the country
• Use of state resources to distribute bonuses, make last-minute payments to state contractors, and fund unofficial campaign trips by the candidate-president
• A state of emergency declared in seven provinces, limiting civil liberties
• Suspension of voting for Ecuadorians living in Venezuela

The signatories warn that these developments undermine transparency and democratic integrity.

UPDATE 12:47 P.M. EDT: In the first report from the National Electoral Council, President Diana Atamaint provided an initial overview, highlighting the following:

• Over 95% of polling stations were set up without incident
• More than 85% were staffed by their designated members
• 13% were staffed by alternate members
• An additional 0.25% were staffed by citizens who were waiting in line
• Due to heavy rains, 24 polling stations were relocated across 10 provinces
• As of this hour, 10.22% of eligible voters have cast their ballots
• In Palenque, Los Ríos Province, a poll worker and a voter were detained for distributing two ballots
• In Loja and Sangolquí, a voter reported receiving a pre-marked counterfeit ballot; those responsible were turned over to the Prosecutor’s Office
• Nationwide, 17 individuals were caught attempting to photograph their vote.

UPDATE 12:35 P.M. EDT: We are in Valle de los Chillos, in the southeastern part of Quito, where voting continues to take place normally.

UPDATE 12:10 P.M. EDT: Ecuador woke this morning to a video from RC presidential candidate Luisa González warning that her opponent may be placing extra tally sheets at polling stations to falsely suggest electoral fraud in the event of a potential defeat. González called on the military — tasked with securing polling places — not to take part in what she described as “false positives.”

¡Queridos ecuatorianos!

Hago pública mi denuncia ante las acciones desesperadas que, una vez más, el gobierno nacional del candidato-presidente pretende implementar en las próximas horas.

Noboa usted tiene el miedo, nosotros la esperanza. 💪🏻🇪🇨#PorLaVida #LuisaPresidenta… pic.twitter.com/dZnXz6Gjjf

— Luisa González (@LuisaGonzalezEc) April 13, 2025

UPDATE: 11:55 A.M. EDT: CEPR has traveled to Quito, Ecuador, twice during the presidential runoff campaign between González and Noboa. We are currently on our second trip, accompanying the Ecuadorian people as they head to the polls. Our first visit was from March 23 to 27, during which we met with human rights defenders Verónica Potes and Vivian Idrovo from the Alianza por los Derechos Humanos del Ecuador; analysts such as sociologist Agustín Burbano de Lara and Franklin Ramírez, professor and researcher at the Political Sociology Program at FLACSO-Ecuador; journalist Arturo Ruiz from Primera Plana; and newly elected members of the National Assembly, including Cecilia Baltazar (Pachakutik), Ricardo Ulcuango (RC), and Nataly Morillo (ADN).

A common concern raised during the first trip was the possibility that Noboa would refuse to accept the election results if defeated. Even the elected legislator from ADN acknowledged this risk. After the first round, when Noboa failed to receive the support he expected, he avoided public appearances for three days and later alleged irregularities without providing evidence.

However, if the outcome were reversed and González were to lose, most participants — excluding the ADN legislator — expressed fears of increasing power consolidation by the Noboa family, deepening political persecution, escalating human rights violations under the government’s militarization strategy, and a worsening migration crisis. As CEPR’s Pedro Labayen Herrera told The Guardian, “if things don’t go [Noboa’s] way, I think there’s a real risk that he won’t accept the results.”

UPDATE 11:41 A.M. EDT: This is Maria. After voting for Noboa, she walked to the National Electoral Council headquarters in Quito to pray for her country. She hopes correísmo doesn’t return to power and believes Noboa should take an even tougher stance on crime. Though she admits there have been no visible improvements so far, she points out that he’s only been in office for a year and a half—and believes he needs more time. When asked about the accusations against Noboa’s government regarding human rights violations, she largely dismissed them, saying that those who have been killed or imprisoned were all criminals.

UPDATE 11:36 A.M. EDT: The CNE reports that 94,861 delegates from the RC and ADN have been accredited to exercise monitoring and oversight at voting centers, electoral processing centers, and record digitization centers.

President Daniel Noboa has cast his ballot at the Antonio Moya Sánchez school, in Olón, Santa Elena Province.

A voter in Portoviejo was reportedly caught taking a picture of her ballot with her phone, which is prohibited under the CNE’s recent decision banning the use of cell phones while voting. El Diario notes that the fine for such infractions ranges from $9,870 to $30,000 (Ecuador has a dollarized economy).

UPDATE 11:14 A.M. EDT: Reports are coming in from Esmeraldas, Cuenca, Porto Viejo, and Quito that everything is going normally, with few people at polling stations and no crowds. They report a tranquil environment, but that this is a tense calm. This is consistent with what we’re witnessing in Quito.

RC candidate Luisa González has cast her vote, in Manabí.

Assembly member Eliana Correa, who represents Ecuadorian diaspora members in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa, has criticized the disenfranchisement of Ecuadorians in Venezuela (see below): “The CNE suspended the electoral process in Caracas, Venezuela, because they say that CNE officials could not arrive due to a delay in sending the public resources. Here the ballot boxes with the ballots arrived on April 8. Ten thousand Ecuadorians will not be able to exercise their right to vote. We are without democracy.”

Gonzalez has received messages of support from — among others — Uruguay’s former president Pepe Mujica, while far-right US member of Congress Maria Elvira Salazar is urging voters to “Say No to Luisa.”

UPDATE 11:07 A.M. EDT:

Military vehicles and troops keep guard outside the CNE in Quito.

This morning CNE President Diana Atamaint categorically rejected accusations of fraud and stated, “Our obligation is to the truth.” She has been questioned by the opposition over some of her decisions (such as banning the use of cell phones during voting, and her inaction regarding President Noboa’s failure to take a leave of absence to campaign, as required by law — see below), and it was revealed in January that President Noboa had appointed her brother as consul in Queens, New York.

UPDATE 10:42 A.M. EDT: Hundreds of people reportedly lined up in Quito today to get their identity cards to be able to cast votes, Teleamazonas and other outlets are reporting. The Civil Registry extended special hours today and yesterday so that adults would be able to obtain their ID cards.

Not only is voting mandatory in Ecuador, but an Ecuadorian adult’s voting certificate, showing proof that they cast a ballot, is required to perform various banking and other functions, as well as to be able to register as a political candidate. The fine for failing to vote is equal to 10 percent of the Unified Basic Wage.

Because the certificates are so important, people are waiting outside Recinto Electoral Colegio Sebastián Benalcazar, in Quito North, to sell plastic protectors for people’s voting certificates.

UPDATE 10:12 A.M. EDT: At Recinto Electoral Colegio Sebastián Benalcazar, Quito North, voting is proceeding calmly.

People wait outside the voting center.

The military is responsible for safeguarding ballots.

UPDATE 9:25 A.M. EDT: CNE head Diana Atamaint warned this morning to be cautious about exit polls, which “do not constitute official results.” Patience and calm in waiting for official tallies will be important, especially if the results are close and time is needed to receive and tabulate them from the last polling places.

Atamaint said that 48,000 members of the military and 57,000 police are providing security for the election today.

Telesur is reporting that 31,000 Ecuadorians have already cast their votes in Spain, out of 189,000 eligible voters there.

UPDATE 9:10 A.M. EDT: A note on potential threats to the integrity of the election.

Ahead of the elections, various actors — from civil society to political parties — have raised concerns about violations of electoral norms that threaten to undermine the integrity of the process. Most of these warnings focus on the actions of President Noboa, in particular his refusal to take a temporary leave of absence from the presidency for the duration of the campaign period, as required by law. By remaining in office while campaigning, he has also violated the prohibition against using state resources for electoral purposes, leveraging the presidency not only to promote his candidacy but also to issue economic relief packages aimed at courting voters. Observers are also concerned that, in the event of a very close result, either candidate may promote narratives of electoral fraud. González has warned of potential fraud, while Noboa claimed that significant irregularities marred the first round election results, an allegation that was quickly rejected by the OAS and EU observers.

Additionally, public confidence in the integrity and independence of electoral authorities — such as the CNE and TCE — has been eroded by decisions widely perceived as favoring Noboa. These include the disqualification of right-wing candidate Jan Topic, who many believe would have split the pro-Noboa vote; the CNE’s resolution prohibiting cell phone use in voting places — a measure that legal experts deem unconstitutional and that the RC argues undermines electoral transparency; and both institutions’ failure to respond adequately to Noboa’s refusal to step down during the campaign and to his removal of Vice President Verónica Abad (as in the US and other countries, Ecuador’s constitution stipulates that the vice president can only be removed via an impeachment process conducted within the legislature).

An April 9 congressional letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signed by 14 House Democrats, expressed concern regarding several of these developments. The letter urges Rubio to “oppose all efforts to undermine the upcoming election” and calls on him to “send a clear message to the government of Ecuador and other Ecuadorian leaders emphasizing the need for a free, fair and transparent electoral process and noting that, if electoral observers determine these conditions to be met, that the outcome of the election be respected.”

UPDATE 9:04 A.M. EDT: Everything is unfolding peacefully at this voting center north of Quito.

UPDATE 8:46 A.M. EDT: Some 13.7 million people are eligible to vote in the election at 4,376 voting centers nationwide, and voting is mandatory for those between 18 and 65 years of age. Around 450,000 Ecuadorians are eligible to vote abroad — most of them residing in the United States, Spain, and Italy. Polls in Ecuador opened at 7:00 a.m. local time (8:00 a.m. EDT) and close at 5:00 p.m. local time (6:00 p.m. EDT).

During CEPR’s meeting with the Deputy Head of the European Union Election Observation Mission, José Antonio De Gabriel, and the Mission’s political analyst, Andreas Jordan, one measure they highlighted as a positive step by the CNE was the planned establishment of a polling station in Venezuela to allow approximately 10,000 Ecuadorians to vote. Electoral materials had arrived in Caracas by midweek.

However, yesterday, the CNE announced that voting in Venezuela will no longer take place, citing logistical difficulties. This last-minute reversal effectively prevents Ecuadorians in Venezuela from exercising their right to vote — a troubling development in such a tightly contested election. In the first round, the margin between the two candidates was just 16,746 votes, with Noboa receiving 44.17 percent and González 43.97 percent. That vote also revealed a geographic divide: while Noboa performed better among Ecuadorians living in the US and Europe, González saw stronger support across Latin America.

UPDATE 8:26 A.M. EDT April 13: Voting is getting underway in Ecuador and among the diaspora abroad.

This morning, National Electoral Council (CNE) President Diana Atamaint welcomed members of the observer missions. There are 1,213 national and 480 international observers present, from missions from the Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union, and the US. The OAS Electoral Observer Mission (EOM) “will be present in 20 provinces across the country and abroad, in the cities of Barcelona, London, Madrid, New York, and Washington, DC” and today “will visit polling stations in various provinces to assess the progress of the election, from the installation of polling stations to the transmission of preliminary results.”

CEPR Senior International Policy Associate Francesca Emanuele snapped this photo of barbed wire being put up around the CNE last evening.

Update 4:37 p.m. EDT April 12: Noboa Issues Emergency Decree on Eve of Elections

This morning, less than 24 hours before the vote, President Noboa issued Decree 599, declaring a 60-day state of emergency in seven provinces — all of which were won by González in the first round — as well as in the Metropolitan District of Quito and a canton in the province of Azuay. The decree suspends several constitutional rights: the right to the inviolability of the home, allowing warrantless raids; the right to the inviolability of correspondence, enabling the government to intercept and examine private messages, letters, and other communications; and the right to freedom of assembly. It also imposes a 10 p.m. curfew in over a dozen cantons in Los Ríos, Guayas, and Azuay. Some observers have condemned the decree as a last-minute attack on voters’ rights and the election’s integrity. CEPR spoke with constitutional lawyer Juan Álvarez about the decree’s impact. He expressed concern that it could be used to legitimize and enable the use of force against efforts to mobilize and protest potential irregularities.

Unlike Noboa’s previous emergency decrees, which have been premised on responding to an “internal armed conflict” declared by the government in January 2024, this decree only cites “serious internal commotion” as its justification. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly ruled against the use of the “internal armed conflict” as the basis for Noboa’s previous decrees, and because of his continued use of this justification, it ordered on March 5 that the Noboa administration establish an inter-institutional security commission composed of various ministries and oversight bodies. The commission was tasked with jointly developing security proposals and regularly reporting on their progress. It was also required to meet every two months at the Constitutional Court’s premises. However, President Noboa has ignored the ruling, arguing that the Court lacks the authority to shape or direct security policy.

Update 2:53 p.m. EDT April 12: CEPR’s Meetings with Politicans, Civil Society, and Election Observers Ahead of the Elections

Gabriel Bedón of Construye

Francesca Emanuele and Pedro Labayen Herrera’s first meeting was with legislator Gabriel Bedón of the conservative Construye party. Speaking mostly in a personal capacity, he described an electorate weary of the left/right political pendulum, with many favoring a centrist option. Bedón advocated for null votes as a form of protest against candidates whom he views as unprincipled and likely to break the law. He added that important sectors of the academic community support such a vote. Bedón also called for deep constitutional reform to address what he views as structural deficiencies in Ecuador’s institutions, such as the selection of oversight authorities. The legislator highlighted that the assassination of Villavicencio led to a dramatic rise in polarization and distrust in the state. Lastly, he warned of a possible conflict of interest if Noboa wins the presidency and his mother, a legislator-elect for his party, becomes president of the National Assembly, which, among other functions, is in charge of overseeing the executive branch.

Meeting with Assemblyman Bedón at the National Assembly

Leonidas Iza and Lenín Sarsosa of CONAIE

CEPR met with Lenín Sarsosa, a senior official from CONAIE, Ecuador’s largest Indigenous organization, on April 10. He described Pachakutik’s agreement with the RC as a chance to build a strong, new political project for the RC and the left more broadly. However, he criticized Luisa González’s choice of Jan Topic for interior minister, calling it a setback that has strained the alliance. Despite this, CONAIE will continue to support González’s candidacy for now — a stance he said has frustrated the right, which has responded by papering her campaign ads with attack messages. The official also warned that President Noboa may push a fraud narrative if he loses, potentially with support from the CNE and the Prosecutor General’s office. The official stated that CONAIE opposes efforts to significantly reform or replace the Constitution.

A day after the meeting with Sarsosa, CEPR spoke with Leonidas Iza, head of CONAIE. Iza discussed how President Noboa has attempted to fracture and demonize the Indigenous movement, including through the use of state institutions, and noted that former President Rafael Correa’s persecution of the movement helped create space for a right-wing current to take hold within it. He also shared his views on the elections, emphasizing that the country’s politics have deteriorated due to corruption and a climate of disinformation. Iza argued that Noboa has used state resources to gain an unfair advantage and has politicized the issue of security without delivering real improvements. He further claimed that the CNE has been coopted by Noboa, and that although it rejected his request to waive fines for those who fail to vote, the belief that such a waiver will occur has already taken root among many voters. Iza also outlined the main points of the agreement with the RC.

Regarding CONAIE’s stance in the event of fraud allegations and post-election protests, Iza said the movement would respond cautiously and avoid involvement to prevent further chaos — though he added that they would defend themselves if necessary.

Meeting with Leonidas Iza

Graffiti outside CONAIE’s HQ saying “If you don’t want Maduro, vote for your future!”

Attack message pasted on a poster from González’s campaign saying she and Leonidas Iza will dedolarize the economy

Mauricio Alarcón of Fundación Ciudadanía y Desarrollo

Next, CEPR discussed the political situation in Ecuador with Mauricio Alarcón, Executive Director of the Citizenship and Development Foundation (Fundación Ciudadanía y Desarrollo), which oversees and defends Ecuador’s rule of law and democracy. Like many others whom CEPR has spoken with, Alarcón highlighted deep political polarization, noting that this could lead to the closest election in years. He expressed concern that fraud narratives may emerge after the vote — particularly from President Noboa if he loses. While not a supporter of RC, Alarcón warned that Noboa represents the greatest threat to democracy and the rule of law in Ecuador in years. Alarcón also stressed that this election has been marred by widespread, homegrown disinformation, and noted that every presidential candidate has failed to comply with campaign finance reporting laws.

On foreign relations, he said the perceived closeness between Noboa and Trump is largely manufactured by Noboa, and that Trump shows little real interest in engaging with the Ecuadorian president. He added that the US has no major stake in the election and is unlikely to back any fraud claims, and praised the work of OAS and EU electoral observers.

Days after our meeting with Alarcón, CBS News reported on a leaked US intelligence document allegedly stating that Noboa’s reelection would better serve US national security interests and that Luisa González has received financial support from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — a popular conspiracy theory which Erik Prince has helped spread. Many observers have denounced this as foreign intervention.

Vice President Verónica Abad

CEPR’s final meeting on April 10 was with Vice President Verónica Abad. She had been effectively removed from office on March 29 by a Electoral Dispute Tribunal(TCE) decision — which many legal experts, including a UN special rapporteur, have alleged is illegal — following an 18-month campaign by President Noboa to pressure her to resign or be dismissed.

The vice president described in detail how President Noboa’s government has persecuted her, targeting her on multiple fronts. She cited actions ranging from the Ministry of Labor’s earlier removal of her through an illegal administrative procedure, to the cutting of her staff, suspension of her salary, her assignment to Israel as Ambassador with tasks she described as deliberately unattainable, and the jailing of her son and her lawyer on bogus charges.

Abad said this was possible because Ecuador’s institutions — including the TCE, CNE, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and other oversight bodies — function as political instruments of President Noboa. The vice president relayed the difficulty of explaining her complex legal situation — marked by dozens of proceedings — to foreign journalists, particularly English-speaking ones, who have not contacted her. Abad asserted she would pursue every legal avenue, both nationally and internationally, for as long as necessary to achieve justice.

Meeting with Vice President Verónica Abad

José Antonio De Gabriel and Andreas Jordan of the EU Electoral Observation Mission

CEPR also met with the EU Electoral Observation Mission’s (EOM) deputy chief, José Antonio De Gabriel, and political analyst, Andreas Jordan. The EOM officials expressed concern that if the election results are too close, both candidates might promote fraud narratives, and spoke about Noboa’s baseless fraud claims after the first round. They also expressed concern over the CNE’s last-minute ban on voters’ use of phones in voting booths, not because of the rule itself, but due to the confusion it may cause and the perception that it was imposed under pressure from the Noboa administration — which may legitimize potential fraud claims.  The EOM further noted that public trust in the independence of the CNE and TCE has been eroded by decisions seen as favoring Noboa, including the disqualification of candidate Jan Topic, silence on Noboa’s failure to take a leave of absence when campaigning, and the removal of Abad.

However, they also expressed confidence in the CNE’s capacity to conduct the election accurately, efficiently, and transparently, noting that the body has “compensated” in other areas, such as actively advertising that party delegates may still use phones at polling places, facilitating migrant voting in Venezuela, and rejecting Noboa’s request to waive fines for those who fail to vote. They also addressed concerns about the CNE’s changing of certain voting precincts in areas affected by heavy rainfall. While the RC criticized the move as an attempt to create confusion and suppress turnout, the EOM said the changes were justified, confirming that these areas are indeed flooded and that only 14 precincts were moved, each to a location as close as possible to the original.

Meeting with the EU Electoral Observation Mission

Background on Ecuador’s April 19 Runoff Election, April 11, 2025

Ecuadorians go to the polls Sunday in what is expected to be a close runoff election between incumbent president Daniel Noboa and left-leaning challenger Luisa González. Polls show the two candidates in a statistical tie, with some polls giving González a slight lead and some showing Noboa ahead. Amid multiple crises including violent crime rates, a shrinking economy, and an ongoing energy crisis, many see this election between two candidates with starkly different political visions as possibly a defining moment for the country’s future.

CEPR has been closely tracking developments in Ecuador (see our Ecuador News Round-Ups and other Ecuador-related content here) and CEPR analysts Francesca Emanuele and Pedro Labayen Herrera are currently monitoring events on the ground in Quito. Together with US-based colleagues, they will be providing live updates on the election throughout the day on Sunday. We will also be monitoring the official electoral vote count as results come in after polls close.

Over the last few weeks, CEPR has met with Ecuadorian electoral experts, political scientists, journalists, constitutional lawyers, human rights advocates, and politicians from various parties, including Noboa’s party — National Democratic Action (ADN, by its Spanish initials) — and González’s party — Citizens’ Revolution (RC). While the views of these individuals have often clashed, most of those interviewed have noted a high level of political polarization during this election and see a risk of political instability and violence if the results are very close.

Noboa and González on Key Campaign Issues

Daniel Noboa, the country’s youngest-ever president and the son of Ecuador’s wealthiest businessman, has portrayed himself as a forward-looking candidate of change, in rupture with the traditional political class. Nevertheless, his track record thus far, and his current policy proposals, suggest that if elected he’s likely to continue implementing the neoliberal economic and social agenda of his immediate predecessors, Lenín Moreno and Guillermo Lasso. Meanwhile, González — who could be Ecuador’s first female president — has fully embraced the legacy of exiled former president Rafael Correa, under whom she served as general secretary of the presidency. Her campaign slogan, “Revive Ecuador,” is a clear reference to the economic, social, and institutional progress achieved during Correa’s 10 years in office (2007–2017), and the country’s rapid decline since.

Security

This is the number one issue for voters, as Ecuador’s homicide rate has skyrocketed from 5.8 per 100,000 people in 2017 to 50.7 homicides per 100,000 today. Noboa took a hard line from the beginning of his presidency, declaring an internal armed conflict and deploying the military for some law enforcement functions. Following numerous allegations of abuses by Ecuadorian security forces — including dozens of forced disappearances — Noboa has been strongly criticized by human rights defenders for encouraging impunity for state violence, not least because of his multiple offers of preemptive pardons for security forces. He has also promoted the involvement of foreign security forces, particularly from the US (see below).

González has also adopted a “zero tolerance” hard line on crime but, in keeping with her political movement’s fervent defense of Ecuadorian sovereignty, has rejected involving foreign security forces. She has emphasized addressing the root causes of crime through social spending directed at poverty and unemployment. González has also promised to reinstate security and justice institutions created during the Correa era and subsequently dismantled during the Moreno administration (2017–2021). She has pledged to root out corruption and malfeasance in the judiciary and the public prosecutor’s office, which has been accused of engaging in politically motivated persecution of left-wing politicians, including Correa and the Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza. González sparked controversy on April 9 by announcing plans to establish “peace managers” — local community assemblies funded by the state to support citizen security initiatives and collaborate with the police. Despite her saying that members of these assemblies would be unarmed, it has not stopped critics from claiming this would lead to the creation of gangs.

Economy

In recent years, Ecuador’s economy has stagnated; last summer the country entered a recession. Poverty and unemployment have surged, stoking the highest level of out-migration in over 15 years. In response, González has committed to significantly expanding access to basic services like health care; investing in renewable energies; and funding microcredit programs for small, women-owned enterprises; among other proposals. In order to secure the fiscal space to advance these policies, she says she would renegotiate the government’s current “unfair” loan agreement with the IMF, which calls for major public spending cuts.

Noboa, meanwhile, has embraced an unabashedly neoliberal agenda. During his time in office, he has negotiated a trade agreement with Canada that would include controversial investor protections, raised the country’s regressive value-added tax, and attempted to privatize Ecuador’s largest oil field. In April 2024, he held a popular referendum proposing reforms that would have reversed labor protections and repealed a constitutional prohibition on entering agreements with pro-corporate international arbitration provisions. Although other referendum measures were approved, these neoliberal proposals were roundly rejected.

Foreign Policy

Noboa has centered the US in his foreign policy approach (see “The US Factor” below), while González seeks greater independence from the US and supports deepening ties with Latin American neighbors. In March she met with President Lula of Brazil and the progressive, newly elected president of Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi; in February she received the endorsement of President Sheinbaum of Mexico, which suspended bilateral relations with Ecuador’s government following Noboa’s decision to order an illegal raid of Mexico’s embassy in Quito to capture an RC politician who had received asylum there. The election comes as the global economy is being rocked by the Trump administration’s chaotic tariff approach to the rest of the world, and as various countries look to strategize and coordinate their responses — as leaders including Lula and Sheinbaum sought to do at this week’s CELAC meeting.

Developments Since the First Round

The results of the first round of the election, on February 9, defied polls predicting that Noboa would have a wide margin of victory, potentially even winning in the first round. Instead, the final results gave Noboa, with 44.17 percent, only a sliver more voter support than González, with 43.97 percent, among a field of 16 candidates. González is expected to benefit from what could be a decisive endorsement from Leonidas Iza of CONAIE, Ecuador’s largest Indigenous organization. Iza came in third in the first round, receiving 5.25 percent of votes.

Soon after the first round, Iza indicated that he would likely throw his support behind Gónzalez, characterizing the runoff as a choice between “social democracy” and “neofascism.” On March 30, the political arm of CONAIE, Pachakutik, endorsed Gónzalez’s candidacy after she signed an agreement committing to a set of Indigenous demands, including the adoption of a security policy respectful of human rights, a halt to further expansion of oil fields, and the pursuit of prior and informed consultation of Indigenous communities regarding development projects in their territories.

Earlier this week, Gónzalez received the endorsement of right-wing former presidential candidate Jan Topic after offering him the position of Minister of Interior in the event of her victory. Topic, a French Foreign Legion veteran nicknamed the “Rambo of Ecuador,” was disqualified from running in the presidential election following a controversial ruling by the Electoral Disputes Court earlier this year. Given Topic’s public support for Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele’s hard-line, human rights-infringing security policies, as well as his past offer to oversee Noboa’s security strategy, his involvement in a future Gónzalez government is likely to be met with strong resistance from human rights groups and sectors within the Indigenous movement.

Noboa has used the power of the presidency to bolster his image and leverage potential US support to give himself an edge (see “The US Factor” Below), but he has been at the center of several major scandals since the first round, some of which only seem to be growing, and that could sway voters away from him:

What Are Noboa’s Connections To Cocaine Trafficking?

The Colombian media outlet Revista Raya reported March 26 on several Noboa Trading Company banana shipments in which Ecuadorian police found bricks of cocaine, sometimes barely concealed after the containers were opened. The report, which is based on police documents and includes various photos, also notes that a Noboa Trading contractor arrested multiple times in cocaine busts, José Luis Rivera Baquerizo, emerged unscathed. One of his lawyers was Edgar José Lama Von Buchwald ― at the time an attorney for, and advisor to, then-legislator Noboa, and now Health Minister in the Noboa administration.

As Raya and other outlets have noted, Noboa Trading has a “closed system” from harvest to point of shipping, meaning that there must be involvement in drug trafficking at some level by some individuals working for the company. This raises the questions: how high up does the involvement go, and who ultimately is responsible?

The Noboa Trading scandal became even more serious when investigative reporter Claudia Jardim, who previously revealed evidence of Noboa’s offshore assets (illegal for a public office holder to have, under Ecuadorian law), reported on another link between President Noboa and the cocaine busts. Jardim’s report, which was first published in Publica and subsequently covered widely in South American media, shows that Noboa also is part owner of an offshore company based in Panama, Lanfranco Holdings, which is majority shareholder of Noboa Trading. Noboa initially denied having any direct connection to Noboa Trading live on TV during a presidential debate.

“Vicarious Violence”

Noboa is also subject of serious allegations from his ex-wife, Gabriela Goldbaum, who claims that Noboa has used their young daughter to hurt Goldbaum, in addition to many lawsuits that Noboa has filed against her and her family. Goldbaum has described the abuse as “vicarious violence,” a form of gender-based abuse in which the abuser uses children or others to emotionally harm a partner or former partner. Goldbaum alleges that Noboa has used the full power of the presidency to bear in his retaliatory actions against her and those she loves, including her father, and she has worked with legislators on a bill that would criminalize “vicarious violence.”

Noboa Benefited from the Smearing of the RC for the Villavicencio Murder in the 2023 Election

On April 8, Veronica Sauraz, the widow of assassinated 2023 presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, posted a video on social media claiming that she had been misled and manipulated into casting blame on the RC for the murder of her husband. In the video, which has gone viral, Sauraz alleges collusion between Prosecutor General Diana Salazar and Noboa, since the claims that RC may have been behind the murder are believed to have helped lead to González’s 2023 defeat.

Sauraz’s comments provide further confirmation of reporting by Drop Site News, The Intercept Brasil, and others that leaked texts between whistleblower former legislator Ronny Aleaga and Salazar show a pattern of corruption and politicization of criminal cases aimed at harming the RC and the correísta movement.

Noboa’s Bad Marks on the Two Biggest Issues in the Election

A new YouGov poll, commissioned by CEPR, shows a majority of Ecuadorians giving Noboa bad marks on a number of important areas, including key electoral issues: the economy, and security. Sixty-one percent of Ecuadorians polled said they did not believe that their economic situation, nor their security, had improved since Noboa has been in office. A majority also said that they believe the Ecuadorian economy overall has not improved under the Noboa administration.

In addition, most reported that:

• they believe that Noboa has used the office of the presidency to advance his family’s business interests;
• Noboa has not done enough for communities affected by a massive oil spill March 13 in the province of Esmeraldas, where half a million people lost access to potable water as a result;
• Noboa broke the law by not taking a leave of absence to campaign in the election’s first round;
• Noboa’s actions to sideline his elected vice president, Veronica Abad, and remove her from the vice presidency, are politically motivated;
• they opposed the Noboa government’s raid on the Mexican embassy a year ago in order to apprehend former vice president Jorge Glas, to whom Mexico had granted asylum;
• and they oppose Noboa’s efforts to privatize the Sacha oil field.

A plurality said they do not believe that Noboa has disposed of offshore assets in tax havens.

The US Factor

Noboa, meanwhile, has attempted to use his relationship with the Trump administration to nail down some last-minute deals that could put him over the edge in Sunday’s vote. He has offered a US military presence on the environmentally fragile Galapagos Islands, widely considered an appealing prospect to the US government, which has not had a military base in Ecuador since before Rafael Correa’s presidency and which previously relied on the Colombian government to be a key military ally in the region.

Noboa has also contracted Erik Prince, the founder of private security company Blackwater, to go along on police raids on “narco gangs.” Prince is the brother of Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education in the first Trump administration, and is believed to have helped broker an agreement with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele to have deportees from the US held at El Salvador’s notorious “Terrorism Confinement Center.” Prince has said that “special forces” would be going to Ecuador as well, without providing details spurring speculation that such “forces” may in fact be his mercenaries. Prince has also campaigned in favor of Noboa, claiming baselessly that the RC is funded by the Maduro government in Venezuela.

In what was widely seen as an attempt to bolster his electoral chances, Noboa flew to Florida on March 28, saying he would meet with Trump. Weeks later, it is unclear as to whether a substantive meeting actually took place. While Noboa did post a photo of himself and First Lady Lavinia Valbonesi standing with Trump, this was the only evidence offered that the two leaders met. Neither the White House nor Noboa administration officials would confirm the meeting nor offer details when asked by reporters, and such a meeting never appeared on Trump’s daily schedule. That Ecuador was not spared new 10 percent tariffs from the Trump administration has contributed further to claims that Noboa’s efforts to cozy up to Trump have flopped — at least for now.

On April 9, 14 members of the US Congress sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio voicing concern that Noboa might not recognize the election results if he narrowly loses. Noboa alleged, without evidence, that there had been fraud in the first round (despite his first-place finish), and earlier this month, he reportedly said that he would stand by the election results if there is not evidence of “fraud” and strongly implied fraud could occur, which leaves him a lot of wiggle room to reject the outcome.

Noboa has also targeted González’s areas of strong support (along the coast, especially) with material support in what many see as a transparent attempt to pull votes from González.

Read our latest Ecuador News Round-Up for more context ahead of the elections.