The Congressional Budget Office Has Consistently Over-Estimated the Cost of Obamacare

November 22, 2014

A Washington Post editorial argued that the Republicans would be best-served by re-appointing Doug Elmendorf as the director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) rather than picking someone who is a conservative ideologue. The basis for this argument is that Elmendorf, in the Post’s view, “has a well-earned reputation for refusing to tell policymakers what they want to hear.”

Ironically, in the example given in the editorial Elmendorf told the Republicans exactly what they wanted to hear:

“In 2009, for example, he publicly declared that an early draft of Obamacare would increase, not decrease, health-care costs, thus forcing the president and his congressional allies back to the drawing board.”

Of course the Republicans wanted to hear that Obamacare would be an expensive program. It also turns out that Elmendorf was wrong. CBO has had to continually revise down its estimates of the cost of Obamacare.

It is interesting that the Post would highlight as evidence of Elmendorf’s impartiality a case where he told the Republicans what they wanted to hear and was wrong to do so.

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