Will China’s Demographic Crisis Look Like Japan and Korea’s?

November 05, 2023

The New York Times seems to really love telling readers that China is facing a demographic crisis because its population is falling. It is not clear why the NYT thinks this amounts to a crisis for China, since many other countries have declining populations without experiencing any obvious crisis.

The most obvious examples are two of China’s neighbors, Japan and Korea, both of which are seeing modest drops in population. In both countries, per capita income is continuing to rise, in spite of a shrinking workforce. In fact, in South Korea, per capita income has risen at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the last four years, a faster pace than in the United States.

This growth figure actually understates improvements in living standards, since a smaller population also means less congestion and less pollution, factors that are not picked up in GDP. It is not clear why China should be worried if it experiences a similar decline in population.


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