Beat the Press

Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

We are still seeing no real debate as to whether we want to rely on these monopolies as a primary mechanism for financing medical innovation in the future.
We are still seeing no real debate as to whether we want to rely on these monopolies as a primary mechanism for financing medical innovation in the future.
My preference for the tax credit system is both that it applies to a much broader range of material than just news, and that I think it would be far easier to implement and enforce.
My preference for the tax credit system is both that it applies to a much broader range of material than just news, and that I think it would be far easier to implement and enforce.

The Washington Post had an interesting piece that looked at the lives of several people who quit low-paying jobs in a restaurant in Arkansas since the pandemic began. There are three interesting points that come out of this story.

The first is the headline item (actually, subhead) that although the quitters’ mental health improved, their finances were not necessarily better after they left their jobs. There is an obvious point here that people should recognize. It is unlikely that, even in a good labor market, people who leave near minimum wage jobs will suddenly find themselves flush with money.

If someone is earning $10 an hour, even a 20 percent increase (in excess of inflation) only gets them to $12 an hour. That sort of increase likely means a big difference in their standard of living, but still leaves them far short of a comfortable middle-class existence. In some cases, the modest gains from the tighter labor market may give them the ability to get additional education or training that will let them enter a higher paying occupation, but we shouldn’t expect that a tight labor market alone will mean that workers in the lowest paying jobs are now financially secure.

There is an important qualification to the stories of the people discussed in this article. The piece starts with the early days of the pandemic when the restaurant was losing business due to the shutdowns. In 2020, we did not have a tight labor market. Instead, we had very high unemployment.

It has only been in the last half-year that we could say that workers were getting the upper hand and had their choice of jobs. The picture for these workers might look qualitatively better if they were quitting jobs today, and the labor market remains tight.

The second point is that the article portrays the restaurant owners as very sympathetic people. The restaurant is owned by a young couple who are pursuing a dream. They work hard alongside their staff, struggling to keep the restaurant open. While some of the former employees (the restaurant closed) may disagree with the article’s portrayal, the reality is that many low-wage employers are not assholes. They are struggling to make a business work, and that can mean that they can’t afford to pay decent wages to their workers. Of course, this story does not apply to the Walmarts and the McDonalds of the world.

The third point is that the restaurant closed. This means that no one is working there. That is the story of how whatever labor “shortage” we are now seeing gets resolved. Businesses that cannot afford to pay workers the prevailing wage go out of business. In many cases, this may not be pretty. Business owners, like the couple in this story, see their dreams shattered. But that is the way a market economy works.

When uncompetitive businesses shut down, their workers look for employment elsewhere. This process will bring the demand and the supply of workers more into balance. The closing of the restaurant described in the Post article is part of this story.    

The Washington Post had an interesting piece that looked at the lives of several people who quit low-paying jobs in a restaurant in Arkansas since the pandemic began. There are three interesting points that come out of this story.

The first is the headline item (actually, subhead) that although the quitters’ mental health improved, their finances were not necessarily better after they left their jobs. There is an obvious point here that people should recognize. It is unlikely that, even in a good labor market, people who leave near minimum wage jobs will suddenly find themselves flush with money.

If someone is earning $10 an hour, even a 20 percent increase (in excess of inflation) only gets them to $12 an hour. That sort of increase likely means a big difference in their standard of living, but still leaves them far short of a comfortable middle-class existence. In some cases, the modest gains from the tighter labor market may give them the ability to get additional education or training that will let them enter a higher paying occupation, but we shouldn’t expect that a tight labor market alone will mean that workers in the lowest paying jobs are now financially secure.

There is an important qualification to the stories of the people discussed in this article. The piece starts with the early days of the pandemic when the restaurant was losing business due to the shutdowns. In 2020, we did not have a tight labor market. Instead, we had very high unemployment.

It has only been in the last half-year that we could say that workers were getting the upper hand and had their choice of jobs. The picture for these workers might look qualitatively better if they were quitting jobs today, and the labor market remains tight.

The second point is that the article portrays the restaurant owners as very sympathetic people. The restaurant is owned by a young couple who are pursuing a dream. They work hard alongside their staff, struggling to keep the restaurant open. While some of the former employees (the restaurant closed) may disagree with the article’s portrayal, the reality is that many low-wage employers are not assholes. They are struggling to make a business work, and that can mean that they can’t afford to pay decent wages to their workers. Of course, this story does not apply to the Walmarts and the McDonalds of the world.

The third point is that the restaurant closed. This means that no one is working there. That is the story of how whatever labor “shortage” we are now seeing gets resolved. Businesses that cannot afford to pay workers the prevailing wage go out of business. In many cases, this may not be pretty. Business owners, like the couple in this story, see their dreams shattered. But that is the way a market economy works.

When uncompetitive businesses shut down, their workers look for employment elsewhere. This process will bring the demand and the supply of workers more into balance. The closing of the restaurant described in the Post article is part of this story.    

People are still not spending the money banked in the pandemic. This means that we have less reason to fear excess demand driving inflation.
People are still not spending the money banked in the pandemic. This means that we have less reason to fear excess demand driving inflation.
But tens of millions of families with children will have better access to quality childcare. I suspect most parents will be fine with this situation.
But tens of millions of families with children will have better access to quality childcare. I suspect most parents will be fine with this situation.
I’m not worried at this point about a deflationary spiral, but I see what, to my view, is a plausible scenario where the CPI actually goes negative in the next twelve months.
I’m not worried at this point about a deflationary spiral, but I see what, to my view, is a plausible scenario where the CPI actually goes negative in the next twelve months.
If it turns out that the difference in the severity with delta is larger than the difference in spread, the omicron variant may prove to be very good news.
If it turns out that the difference in the severity with delta is larger than the difference in spread, the omicron variant may prove to be very good news.
The number of employees who stand to be fired over the mandate is less than the number who would be fired or quit their job in a typical month.
The number of employees who stand to be fired over the mandate is less than the number who would be fired or quit their job in a typical month.
The NYT should not be assisting the industry in its efforts to inflate jobs concerns in order to block action on global warming.
The NYT should not be assisting the industry in its efforts to inflate jobs concerns in order to block action on global warming.
The November jobs report left a number of people, including me, somewhat confused. The data from the survey of households was great.
The November jobs report left a number of people, including me, somewhat confused. The data from the survey of households was great.

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